Domestic Policy
Council Presidency: Yesterday evening, Council President Giorgia Meloni convened Deputy Prime Ministers Antonio Tajani and Matteo Salvini at Palazzo Chigi, alongside Economy Minister Giancarlo Giorgetti, for discussions on the Economic and Finance Document. Among the measures under review are the extension of the fuel excise duty cut and energy diversification. On the international front, Italy supports initiatives for the security of the Strait of Hormuz, coordinating with the United Kingdom and European partners, while maintaining a degree of distance from Donald Trump’s stance on the conflict with Iran.
Centre-Left: Following the referendum, tensions have emerged within the progressive camp related to the activism of Giuseppe Conte, the Five Star Movement leader, who has been criticised by allies for choosing to postpone direct confrontation and opting for primaries as a path to leadership. While Elly Schlein has expressed willingness to dialogue and also supports primaries, Conte prefers to focus on building the programme from the ground up and pursuing a personal visibility campaign. The prospect of primaries divides the coalition: some see it as an opportunity for participation, others as a factor of fragmentation. Conte is holding back and asserts the priority of a shared programme.
Foreign Policy
Iran: An unidentified rocket struck the Unifil base in Shama, the headquarters of the Italian contingent in Lebanon, causing only minor damage and no casualties. Internationally, tensions are rising between the United States and Iran: Donald Trump has threatened new attacks to destroy Iranian military and energy capabilities, while Tehran has responded with missile launches and threats in the Gulf. China has called for de-escalation, and the European coalition is considering measures to ensure the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. European leaders have expressed strong concern over regional security and the impact on energy markets.
Almasri Case: The International Criminal Court has referred Italy to the Assembly of States Parties for failure to cooperate in the Almasri case. Almasri, a Libyan soldier accused of torture, murder, and rape, was the subject of an arrest warrant that Italy failed to execute, after which he was repatriated. The decision, communicated on 26 January and formalised on 29 January 2026, stems from this refusal. The decision opens a political-institutional debate, with the Court inviting an Italian representative to discuss the implications and the future of cooperation. This episode marks a crucial turning point in Italy-ICC relations, highlighting tensions and shared responsibilities.
Economy and Finance
Inflation: The energy shock linked to the Middle East conflict is forcing the European Central Bank (ECB) to revise upwards its inflation forecasts for the Eurozone, expected to exceed 2% in the short term and reach up to 3.1% in the second quarter, with negative effects also on growth. Markets are feeling the uncertainty: stock markets are falling and oil prices are at their highest since 2022. The ECB has warned of risks to consumption and confidence and has not ruled out a tightening of monetary policy. Standard & Poor’s is forecasting recessionary scenarios in the event of a prolonged shock, with Italy among the most exposed countries. The Italian government has reaffirmed its commitment to the stability of energy markets.
Ferrovie dello Stato: Ferrovie dello Stato closed 2025 with a profit of €30 million and revenues of €18.3 billion. Margins grew particularly in the infrastructure of Rete Ferroviaria Italiana and international transport, both considered strategic for future private sector openings. Investments, boosted by the National Recovery and Resilience Plan (PNRR), reached record levels, while EBITDA rose to €2.4 billion. The 2025-2029 plan foresees over €100 billion in investments for infrastructure, sustainability, and international development. Financial position and net equity have also improved, while 8,500 employees were hired in 2025.