Domestic Policy
Prime Minister: Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni spoke on TG5 following the attacks in Tehran, expressing deep concern over the escalation in the Middle East, which she views as a consequence of the crisis in international law stemming from the war in Ukraine. The Prime Minister is focused on reviving diplomacy, containing the conflict, and ensuring the safety of the many Italians in the region. Meloni condemned the Iranian attacks on Gulf countries and reiterated the urgency of preventing Iran from developing nuclear capabilities. She is also working on dialogue with regional partners, activating intelligence resources to monitor terrorism risks. She further defended Minister Crosetto, stating that he “has not stopped being a minister.”
Electoral Reform: The electoral reform proposed by the centre-right, based on a majority bonus and run-off voting, faces an obstacle in the form of equal bicameralism: the Chamber and the Senate could produce different winners. Some experts argue that a national run-off is incompatible with two autonomous chambers and call for a clause preventing the awarding of the bonus in case of divergent outcomes. Other constitutional scholars recall precedents of single voting and consider the risk unlikely, though they admit absolute certainty does not exist. The role of the President of the Republic remains to be clarified.
Foreign Policy
Iran: The escalation between the United States, Israel, and Iran is rapidly intensifying. Trump claimed that recent attacks eliminated 49 Iranian leaders and did not rule out a prolonged conflict or the deployment of ground troops. Israel struck Tehran with hundreds of bombs targeting regime installations, leaving the capital without electricity. Within 48 hours, Israel and the United States have dropped thousands of ordnances. A new front has also opened in Lebanon: Israeli bombings on Hezbollah, including the killing of the head of its intelligence services, have caused thousands of displaced people in Beirut.
Nuclear Umbrella: Emmanuel Macron is redefining French nuclear strategy by announcing an increase in missiles and the possibility of deploying French nuclear forces in other European countries, introducing a form of “advanced deterrence.” Eight EU countries, including Germany, the Netherlands, and Poland, have shown interest, although the decision on the use of the weapon would remain exclusively French. The initiative, seen as a response to uncertainties regarding the American nuclear umbrella, has failed to convince other EU countries, including Italy, and has provoked irritation in Russia.
Economy and Finance
Istat: The latest provisional estimates from Istat for 2025 confirm GDP growth at 0.5%, but the deficit has risen to 3.1%, jeopardising an early exit from the European excess deficit procedure. The government attributes the figure to the lingering accounting effects of the Superbonus, while debt (137.1% of GDP) and tax pressure (43.1%) continue to rise. The opposition speaks of economic policy failure and the risk of recession without the National Recovery and Resilience Plan (NRRP). The majority defends the government’s actions, but uncertainty remains pending the EU’s April assessment.
Energy: Iran has threatened to close the Strait of Hormuz, a strategic crossroads for one-fifth of the world’s oil reserves, with severe consequences for global markets. The ongoing crisis has seen a 40-70% drop in maritime traffic in the area, oil prices rising up to 8%, and hundreds of oil tankers immobilised. Closure would jeopardise international supplies of gas and fertilisers, destabilising the global economy. Despite the threats, analysts suggest Tehran may prefer deterrence over a complete blockade, which would also harm its own economy.