Domestic Policy
Electoral Law: The majority aims to approve the reform of the electoral law by summer, which will be introduced in the Constitutional Affairs Committee next week. The text, not yet finalized, introduces a proportional system with a majority bonus (“Stabilicum”), which faces strong criticism from the opposition. The debate will focus on the runoff mechanisms and preferential voting, requested by Brothers of Italy and other parties but opposed by the League and Forza Italia. An analysis by the Cattaneo Institute highlights uncertainties regarding the effects of the bonus and the risk of a majority capable of electing the President of the Republic alone.
Justice: Regarding the justice referendum, Giorgia Meloni expresses confidence in a “Yes” victory, while the “No” camp organizes a united demonstration with Elly Schlein and Giuseppe Conte on 18 March at Rome’s Piazza del Popolo. The government defends the reform against judicial factions, while the opposition denounces risks to the balance of powers and appeals to AGCOM over alleged media bias favoring the “Yes” side.
Foreign Policy
Iran: A military operation, described as “preventive,” by Israel and the United States has attacked Iran, marking a shift in the Middle Eastern landscape. Iranian targets were struck, and the killing of Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei was announced. Confirmation came from Trump, who called the action a success and promised further attacks. Tehran responded with missile strikes on Tel Aviv and drone attacks on Dubai, also involving Bahrain, Qatar, Kuwait, and Iraq. Italian Minister Tajani assured that no Italians were involved.
Reactions to the Attack: World leaders react cautiously to the U.S.-Israeli attacks on Iran, fearing regional escalation. France, Germany, and the UK call for a negotiated solution and respect for Iranian rights. The UN and EU urge restraint. Russia and China criticize the operation but avoid concrete support for Tehran. In Italy, Giorgia Meloni convened the government and intelligence services to protect Italians in the region, expressing solidarity with the Iranian people and calling for de-escalation. Italian authorities were informed only after the operation began. The conflict is spreading to several Gulf states, indirectly affecting Italian nationals, including Minister Crosetto, who remains stranded in Dubai for private reasons.
Economy and Finance
Energy: Before the attack on Iran, Brent crude prices had surpassed $73 per barrel, reaching their highest level in seven months, with further increases anticipated. Tensions in the Persian Gulf are rising, with risks of a blockade of the Strait of Hormuz—crucial for global trade—and possible military actions against Kharg Island, Iran’s primary export route. OPEC+ may increase production, but the unstable situation makes clear decisions difficult. The military intervention by the U.S. and Israel could significantly impact markets, affecting global oil and gas prices and supplies.
Monte dei Paschi: The renewal of leadership at Monte dei Paschi and Banco BPM is underway, facing challenges linked to the new Capital Law. In Siena, the Nomination Committee discussed a list of 20 candidates for the Mps board, with current CEO Lovaglio favored, supported by the Bank of Italy and the ECB, against opposition from shareholder Caltagirone. In Milan, Banco BPM’s board confronts complications regarding gender parity and potential candidates, with risks of controversial choices and decisions that may bring surprises.