Internal Politics
Supreme Defence Council: The Supreme Defence Council, chaired by President Sergio Mattarella, reaffirmed that Italy will not participate in a war against Iran and will continue to support the diplomatic path to resolve international crises. During the meeting at the Quirinale, strong concern was expressed regarding global instability, exacerbated by the war in Ukraine, tensions in the Middle East, and the risk of terrorist and hybrid warfare. The attack on the Erbil base in Iraq, where Italian military personnel operate, was also condemned.
Biennale: The Italian government is considering legal action against the Venice Biennale Foundation to prevent Russia’s participation in the upcoming exhibition. Culture Minister Alessandro Giuli has initiated an examination of the records of the Board of Directors, led by Pietrangelo Buttafuoco, suspecting an attempt to circumvent European sanctions through the tactic of a concert by Russian musicians recorded prior to the opening. The executive fears that the Russian pavilion could become a tool for propaganda while the war in Ukraine continues. The issue also divides the ruling majority: Lega supports Russian participation, while Forza Italia opposes it.
Foreign Policy
Oil: Tensions are emerging between the European Union and the United States over the issue of Russian oil. Washington, due to supply difficulties linked to the conflict, has granted a 30-day exemption to allow the purchase of crude oil from Russia, despite existing sanctions. European Council President António Costa described the US decision as “very worrying”, as it risks undermining European security by strengthening Moscow’s resources in the war against Ukraine. Meanwhile, Palazzo Chigi has denied Financial Times reports alleging negotiations between France and Italy with Iran regarding the passage of their ships through the Strait of Hormuz.
Iran: Beyond President Trump’s triumphant declarations about the annihilation of Iran’s military capabilities, the United States is preparing to intensify operations in the Middle East. According to American media, Washington is considering sending new troops and ships, including a possible blitz on the strategic island of Kharg. The Pentagon is reported to have already ordered the deployment of the USS Tripoli with thousands of marines and F-35B fighter jets. The operation could be launched while Trump assures the G7 of an imminent Iranian surrender and urges commercial ships to cross the Strait of Hormuz despite the risks.
Economy and Finance
Istat: Uncertain prospects for the global economy in 2026, according to Istat, due to tensions in the Middle East and rising oil prices, with potentially systemic effects on growth, employment, and inflation. The crisis has caused market volatility and slowed global trade, while Brent prices have exceeded $100 per barrel. The European currency has strengthened against the dollar, but geopolitical uncertainties and monetary policies influence the macroeconomic landscape, with uneven growth prospects among major world economies, marked by a slowdown in the Eurozone and tensions in energy markets.
Eni: Venezuela has signed a strategic agreement with Eni and Repsol to develop the Cardón IV gas field, one of the largest offshore gas fields in Latin America. The agreement initially aims to ensure gas supply for the domestic market and subsequently to facilitate its export, strengthening the country’s energy role. The project also involves the state company PDVSA and falls within the 2026–2028 energy plan. Venezuela, rich in energy resources, suffers from severe shortages due to years of underinvestment and deteriorating infrastructure, which limit hydrocarbon production and distribution.