Domestic Policy
Electoral Law: The new majority bonus for the Senate raises constitutional concerns, as senators are elected on a regional basis. The law provides for regional lists but assigns all bonuses to the winning coalition at the national level, risking distortion of local results. Some constitutional scholars fear violations of Article 57 and potential penalties for certain parties, while others consider a national bonus legitimate to ensure stable majorities. Doubts remain regarding the size of the bonus and the risk of distortions.
Democratic Party: Elly Schlein, secretary of the Democratic Party, announced on Giornale Radio that the choice of the centre-left prime ministerial candidate will be decided with allies, considering options such as coalition primaries. She reiterated that the PD is strongly committed to voting “No” in the referendum but, in case of victory, will not demand the government’s resignation, aiming instead to defeat the right in the next elections. It is likely that centre-left leaders will participate in the 18 March demonstration in Rome, promoted by the No Committee.
Foreign Policy
Reactions to the Attack: While Tehran continues to tremble from bombings, parts of Europe and the US are reinforcing their common stance in the region. France, Germany, and the UK announce defensive actions against Iran: Emmanuel Macron is mobilising the aircraft carrier Charles de Gaulle, while London offers its bases to the US. In Brussels, Ursula von der Leyen and Kaja Kallas are working on regime transition and maritime security. Europe urges avoiding further escalation. However, dissent remains, particularly from Spain, which opposes unilateral interventions not endorsed by the United Nations. Meanwhile, European countries are organising security and repatriation plans for their citizens.
Interview with Guido Crosetto: The interview with Defence Minister Guido Crosetto, published in La Repubblica, took place in Dubai, where Crosetto was preparing to return to Italy on a military flight paid for personally. The minister commented on the situation, noting that “Khamenei’s death is a major defeat for the Islamic extremism that has spread since Khomeini’s 1979 revolution.” Crosetto emphasised the importance of working toward a new balance in Iran, hoping for regional rapprochement: “We must work to find a new equilibrium in Iran and, consequently, in the Middle East.” Regarding the possibility of escalation, he stated that “the risk of significant regional instability is real,” but does not foresee a risk of global war.
Economy and Finance
Energy: Maritime traffic in the Persian Gulf is nearly halted: many ships remain anchored due to fears of attacks, following initial strikes against oil tankers between Oman and the Emirates, resulting in one fatality. Insurers no longer cover the risks, and shipowners are suspending services. Escalation threatens severe economic consequences: oil prices soar above $80, while a blockade of the Strait of Hormuz could cut over 10 million barrels per day. Even more serious is the risk to gas supplies: Qatar’s second-largest global gas exports could halt, potentially causing impacts worse than the 2022 crisis.
Interview with Alessio Butti: The interview with Undersecretary for Technological Innovation Alessio Butti, published in Il Giornale, reveals that another €733 million tender will be launched for areas not yet reached by fibre optics: “After a demanding negotiation with the European Commission, we have recovered €733 million for the new intervention.” The government is committed to avoiding leaving disadvantaged areas behind and hopes to meet the PNRR objectives, even though FTTH fibre subscriptions have not yet fully taken off, as “Many households still perceive FTTC as sufficient.”