Internal Policy
Government: Following the defeat in the referendum on justice, Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni has initiated an internal reshuffle within the Government, imposing a stricter line on individuals involved in judicial matters. Consequently, Undersecretary Andrea Delmastro and Giusi Bartolozzi, chief of staff to the Minister of Justice Carlo Nordio, have resigned, despite an initial attempt at political defence. The position of the Minister for Tourism, Daniela Santanchè, however, remains unresolved; the Prime Minister has exerted pressure on her to consider stepping down. The stated objective is to strengthen the image of institutional rigour following the negative outcome of the referendum, while the executive continues to rule out the possibility of a political crisis.
Centre-Left: After the victory of the ‘No’ vote in the referendum on justice, a rapid debate has opened within the broad coalition regarding the rules and candidatures for the coalition primaries. Giuseppe Conte has renewed his availability to run, advocating for a single-round system open to online voting, whereas Elly Schlein prefers to maintain a two-round system with candidatures more structured by the parties. These differing approaches reflect internal balances still in flux, particularly in light of polls showing an open competition between the main leaders.
Foreign Policy
Crisis in the Middle East: The conflict between the United States, Israel, and Iran continues to develop amidst intense bombardments and uncertain diplomatic efforts, with third-party actors such as Pakistan, Turkey, and Egypt involved in possible mediation. Militarily, attacks and reprisals persist, while Washington alternates between openings for dialogue and preparations for further escalation, maintaining high pressure on Tehran. In this context, signals such as the partial reopening of the Strait of Hormuz indicate limited but significant openings, while the overall picture remains unstable, with potential repercussions for geopolitical balances and global energy markets.
Denmark: The Social Democrats of outgoing Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen have won the elections in Denmark, despite recording a sharp decline in support and lacking a clear parliamentary majority. The political landscape is fragmented, with a balance between the two blocs and a decisive role entrusted to the Moderates and the seats representing the autonomous territories. Consequently, complex and prolonged negotiations are anticipated for the formation of the new government.
Economy and Finance
Tariffs: The European Union has concluded a free trade agreement with Australia that provides for the elimination of almost all tariffs, new investment opportunities, and protections for the most sensitive agricultural sectors. The agreement fits into a strategy of market diversification, considered crucial also for Italy, especially in light of global trade tensions and new balances in international exchanges. Some critical issues remain regarding agricultural production and designations, for which safeguards and transition periods are foreseen.
Strait Bridge: The debate over the Strait Bridge has reignited, with the Messina Strait company indicating summer for the final green light and work expected to begin by the end of 2026. However, the National Anti-Corruption Authority (Anac), through its President Giuseppe Busia, has raised significant concerns, ranging from the need for a new tender to the risks of increased costs and reduced procedural guarantees. Concerns also remain regarding the overall transparency of the project and the possible interests of organised crime.