Domestic Policy
Justice: Concern is growing within the centre-right that the referendum on justice could be decided by votes cast by Italians abroad via postal voting, which is seen as opaque and vulnerable to fraud. With over six million eligible voters outside Italy, the precedent of the 2016 referendum—where a large majority of overseas votes supported Renzi’s reform—fuels fears of a reversal of the national outcome. The government considers it impossible to intervene due to logistical and constitutional constraints. Past allegations of fraud have heightened alarm, but the Democratic Party (PD) rejects last-minute changes. The issue is not the substance of the reform, but the reliability of the overseas voting method.
Ranucci Case: The latest episode of Report on Mafia massacres has reignited attention on the masterminds behind the Capaci and Via D’Amelio bombings, following a new investigation ordered by the investigating judge in Caltanissetta. Beyond the judicial aspects, the programme has sparked a fierce political clash with Forza Italia senator Maurizio Gasparri, who accused Report and RAI of illegality and spreading “black trails” without evidence. The programme’s editorial team responded by asserting that it aired previously unreleased audio recordings concerning presence and inspections prior to the Capaci massacre.
Foreign Policy
Venezuela: The Venezuelan armed forces have reaffirmed their support for constitutional order following the arrest of Nicolás Maduro by the United States, recognising Delcy Rodríguez as interim president based on a Supreme Court decision. The Chavista government and the military remain united, while Rodríguez has declared loyalty to Maduro and rejected any suggestion of betrayal. Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni, after defending the US operation, has called Nobel laureate Maria Corina Machado to discuss prospects for a peaceful and democratic transition in Venezuela. Lega leader Matteo Salvini, however, described the White House’s decision as “unwise.”
Greenland: Following the US intervention in Venezuela, Denmark and Greenland are increasingly concerned by Donald Trump’s statements regarding the annexation of the island. The potential use of force marks, according to some analysts, a paradigm shift in the use of US military power. While acknowledging the incomparability with the Venezuelan case, Copenhagen fears the unpredictability of the new American doctrine. Greenland has reiterated its refusal to join the United States and is pursuing gradual independence. The Danish government is adopting a cautious stance, calling for de-escalation and respect for international law.
Economy and Finance
Monte dei Paschi: Monte dei Paschi di Siena has published its shareholder report, ahead of a 4 February vote on statutory amendments aimed at aligning the bank’s rules with those of major listed financial institutions. In preparation for the renewal of top management in spring, the board has approved an increase in the variable component of executive compensation and the possibility of distributing 100% of profits to shareholders, reducing the legal reserve from 10% to 5%. Monte dei Paschi remains the third-largest banking group in Italy.
Oil: Opec+ countries maintain unchanged oil production despite the US strike in Venezuela, confirming their November decision to suspend output increases until March 2026 for seasonal reasons. The move prioritises market stability, already marked by a sharp drop in prices in 2025, and takes into account internal tensions within the cartel. Producers reaffirm a cautious and flexible approach, deferring any further decisions to the next meeting. Analysts predict limited impact on prices, while the Saudi stock market records a sharp decline linked to new US tariffs.